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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Joseph G. who wrote (3167)7/23/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
Money makes the world go 'round...it also makes it slow down.
Using tonight's H6 release from the Fed, note the slowing of
money growth in the second quarter as measured by the 13 week
prior stats. Since the Fed didn't actively tighten during this
period, a substantial lessening of demand may be underway and
may be symptomatic of a greatly reduced 2Q GDP number.

M1 M2 M3
18-May-98 Feb. 16, 1998 (13 wks.prev.) 1.5 8.4 11.2
Nov. 17, 1997 (26 wks.prev.) 2.5 7.8 11.3
May 19, 1997 (52 wks.prev.) 0.7 6.8 10.0

13-Jul-98 Apr. 13, 1998 (13 wks.prev.) -0.5 6.7 8.3
Jan. 12, 1998 (26 wks.prev.) 1.2 7.5 9.8
July 14, 1997 (52 wks.prev.) 1.1 7.2 9.9

I've always been a proponent of the Lucas school of thought on
money growth...its unanticipated changes in money growth that
influences real activity. Will next week's(Friday) flash estimate
of Q2 GDP prove to be extraordinarily surprising?
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