Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
July 24, 1998
Russian Opposition Plans Nationwide Protest -- Targets the Oligarches
According to its leader, State Duma Security Committee Chairman Viktor
Ilyukhin, the All-Russia Movement in Support of the Army, the Defense
Industry, and Military Science (MSA) has begun preparations for a
nationwide protest. Ilyukhin told a news conference in Moscow that
preparations were to begin on July 23 and last ten days. He asked that all
regional branches of the Movement report their readiness for the nationwide
action by July 30. Ilyukhin also told reporters that, since the most
active members of the Movement had received "threats of physical
liquidation," the MSA had "decided to set up its own security force."
Viktor Ilyukhin, at the time already a strong and vocal opponent of the
Yeltsin government, took over leadership of the MSA at the beginning of
July, following the murder of its founder, retired General Lev Rokhlin.
The MSA has close relations with Russia's Communist Party, and is winning
over its more radical members. The MSA has also reportedly been approached
by a number of other smaller national organizations, including the Union of
Officers, requesting membership. With the Communist Party leadership and
General Alexander Lebed generally attempting to work within the system, and
with ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky largely discredited and
marginalized, Ilyukhin's movement is at the core of the volatile, activist
opposition.
Ilyukhin's core constituency includes the military and the defense
industry, sectors hard-hit both economically and in terms of prestige
following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Defense industry workers have
already taken to the streets this month, declaring their solidarity for
striking miners and demanding the government pay overdue salaries. In a
press conference on July 21, Ilyukhin called on servicemen being discharged
from the army "not to fulfill orders of the command, disarm, or leave
military settlements if the dismissed servicemen are not given housing and
compensations" to which they are entitled.
The Russian Defense Ministry responded that Ilyukhin's remarks were
"inflammatory and designed to destabilize the country." The Defense
Ministry statement accused Ilyukhin of "promoting anarchy and subverting
the preparedness of the Russian armed forces." The Defense Ministry
admitted that subsidies are not being paid on time, but blamed the delays
on the government and the "general financial situation in the country."
This, of course, was exactly what Ilyukhin was arguing.
Ilyukhin has led efforts to impeach Boris Yeltsin, but Russia's economic
collapse is providing him with rhetorical ammunition and recruits to
accelerate his cause. In an interview in the July 22 edition of
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Ilyukhin expressed doubt as to whether Yeltsin could
be ousted by constitutional means, and declared that the MSA planned to
appeal directly to the people to "obtain his [Yeltsin's] removal before any
elections." Nevertheless, Ilyukhin is challenging the constitutionality of
the emergency measures being implemented by the Yeltsin government to
satisfy IMF requirements for a bailout loan. At the same time, he is using
dissent over the IMF deal to appeal to the masses for a more radical
solution.
In a July 21 interview on Russian Public TV, Ilyukhin asserted that
"whatever loans are granted, they are sure to be embezzled and end up in
the oligarches' pockets. The problem is unlikely to be solved by these
loans." Instead, Ilyukhin offered his own solution to Russia's financial
crisis -- expropriating the riches of Russia's oligarches. Said Ilyukhin,
"We should simply add together everything that [former Prime Minister and
head of Gazprom, Viktor] Chernomyrdin, [Oneximbank owner Vladimir] Potanin,
[media and oil mogul Boris] Berezovsky and others have, and then we'll have
two or three times as much as the amounts we are asking from the monetary
funds. Boris Nikolaevich [Yeltsin], too, should look inside his wallet..."
The Russian paper "Segodnya" reported Ilyukhin's assertion that the "small
group of wheelers-dealers and machinators" who head Russia's banks and
industrial groups were responding to the rise of the opposition by selling
the stock and property of their companies to foreigners and transferring
money abroad.
In the publication "Pravda Five," Ilyukhin listed four reasons why Russia
should not accept the IMF loans. First, no amount of external financial
support can help Russia, since the loans go to support the liberal
experiment that is responsible for Russia's social and economic problems.
Second, large scale borrowing only increases Russia's foreign debt, thereby
increasing Russia's dependence on the West. Third, the capital infusion
only temporarily delays the inevitable coming social upheaval, prolonging
Yeltsin's regime and the country's agony. Finally, most of the loans would
go straight into the pockets of "the oligarches and the presidential
camarilla." Ilyukhin concluded with what is now his mantra. There are
financial resources in Russia, but they are in the hands of those who
Yeltsin can not and will not touch, because they provide his social and
financial base -- the oligarches. Ilyukhin's argument shows the clear
difference between him and other would-be opposition leaders like
Zhirinovsky -- Ilyukhin is astute and apparently sane. As such, he is
extremely dangerous.
Russia's problems are painfully evident. The measures necessary to acquire
foreign aid are painful and humiliating. Ilyukhin has a growing national
constituency ready to take to the streets. He has declared and targeted
the source of Russia's pain -- Russia's traditional target in times of
duress -- the Westernizers and those tycoons who have profited from the
Westernizing experiment. With his argument about Russia's capital flight
and the downside of the foreign loans, there is a sense of urgency in his
appeal. He has the moment, he has the support, he has the will, and his
movement just began ten days of planning for nationwide protests.
Ilyukhin told a press conference in early July that, as Yeltsin was
unwilling to apologize and step down, "We will have to help him"
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/071098.html). It
now appears that he is prepared to offer that help sooner, rather than
later.
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