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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (22168)7/23/1998 9:43:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Hi Jim, The doctors office called and I passed the test!
Another year before I have to get all stressed out again.

IMHO! If anyone wants to buy dips, they had better be very nimble
selling into any rally.

Here is some very interesting observations to me anyway.
Tell me what you think.

On or about 4/21/98 most of the major indices made a new high.

This is how they looked in relation to the 200 DMA (Issues > expressed
in %)

NYSE NASD NASD100 S&P100 S&P400 S&P 500 S&P600 S&P Top 50
61.2% 48.9% 71.0% 86.0% 77.3% 82.4% 72.0% 100.0%

Then on or about 6/16/98 the major indices were at beginning of
this last run up.

This is how they looked in relation to the 200 DMA (Issues > expressed
in %)

NYSE NASD NASD100 S&P100 S&P400 S&P 500 S&P600 S&P Top 50
42.7% 32.8% 52.0% 65.0% 48.8% 59.8% 42.2% 90.0%

Then on or about 7/20/98 the major indices made a new RECORD high.

This is how they looked in relation to the 200 DMA (Issues > expressed
in %)

NYSE NASD NASD100 S&P100 S&P400 S&P 500 S&P600 S&PT50
49.7% 37.4% 62.0% 71.0% 56.5% 65.2% 47.8% 94.0%

Here they are as of 7/23/98 (Today)

NYSE NASD NASD100 S&P100 S&P400 S&P 500 S&P600 S&P Top 50
41.9% 32.0% 55.0% 58.0% 45.3% 56.8% 41.8% 86.0%

Now, look at YOUR Top 50 %ages plus the OEX and I think this
again confirms your theory as to where the money is going and your
statement concerning the Index Funds.

Now, remember that on or about 4/21/98 most of the major indices made
a new high and on or about 7/20/98 they made a new RECORD high.

My question is this. How does this happen when on 7/20/98 there
were 10%-20% more of the stocks making up each Index below
the 200 DMA!! :-)))

Monty

PS The McClellan Summation Index (Based on NYSE Adv less Dec Issues)
confirmed the sell signal I got on the Nasdaq 3 days ago!! IMHO this
is NOT OVER! BWDIK
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