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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (11965)7/23/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Timoteo  Read Replies (3) of 18691
 
Roger-I think the Greenspan warning may be sinking in but everyone is caught between getting out of the market and missing a quick 200 or 300 point rebound and a move to 10000 or staying in and feeling the real correction that might take 1000 points off the top. As you know, the market could lose half its value and still be in the average historical valuation range. I've guessed the top and missed before. Now that I am only short AMZN and ZITL and fully invested long, we may finally see the big one:). I doubt it however, since John Q. Public will probably just see it as a buying opportunity and continue to pour money into stock funds and the fund managers will contiune to pour money into liquid large caps and names. When the economy finally runs out of steam and we cycle into recession is when I see the correction happening. I think it will be long and painful as cycles of selling to protect equity take the market lower and lower. Technology has made it very easy for billions of dollars to move effortlessly from stocks to bonds to money instruments, etc. For America's and Al Gore's sake, I hope it won't happen before 2000, but with all the millenium prophets of doom, who knows.

Best Wishes,

Timoteo
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