Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (22120)	7/24/1998 9:33:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

The conflicting numbers may depend on whether one is measuring DRAM overcapacity, or total excess fab capacity. The two are related, but not quite the same. What seems to be happening is that the DRAM people are in such deep trouble that they are (finally) cutting back production, thus bringing DRAM supply back into line with demand. But, since they aren't torching fabs, the excess capacity is still there, ready to be ramped up at a moment's notice, and ready to be shifted to other sectors so that prices there can get smashed, too. IMO, excess foundry capacity is a more severe problem than DRAM capacity at the moment. It's why Taiwan is in trouble now, for instance. Katherine PS For what it's worth, Edward White seems to be one of the more knowledgeable of the industry analysts.

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