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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6048)7/24/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Jess, where are you now that we need another round of Japan-bashing? At this point, I really am starting to think the recovery in this sector is going to be "Plan B", that is, more and more ownership of chip co's by Western investors. There will be elections in Japan in a year, and I would predict an historical ouster of the LDP at that time. In the interim, it looks like business as usual.

On the idiot analysts front, First Boston initiated coverage on five or six leading semi equipment companies today. They are simply guessing at the timing of the recovery -- remember all the "buy" ratings in the spring of '98? More and more chipmakers are stating plans to pull in their equipment-buying horns. Nobody is jumping on copper or 300mm. Although the transition to lower line-widths continues, the chip industry is so overbuilt right now, as a whole, that the dollar volume of equipment sold is going to continue its decline for the forseeable future.

I'm glad AMD and MOT are starting to "team up" so that we will only have to see one major bankruptcy in the industry. Talk about two companies with no idea of how to show a profit. MOT shot itself in the foot again this week, and lower-price CPU manufacturing is rapidly approaching the DRAM model of volume loss.
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