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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.31

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (22104)	7/24/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Teri, in response to your note to jtech/all... About your beliefs: >>I believe in "history", and that it tends to repeat itself < >>We are constantly on the look-out for the last problem, even if the current problem is entirely different. << Can you believe in these two statements at the same time? About Yardeni: You said... >> Yardeni has upped his probability of a severe global recession in '99 (including the U.S.) from 60% to 70%. This prognostication was in Barron's, dated 06 Jul 98 and his basis for this is not Y2K problems alone. << from Smart Money "Pundit Watch"... >>Other long-term picks: The long-term bond yield should fall to 5% by the end of 1998 and the Dow should hit 10,000 by the year 2000. With the way the market has been climbing this year, it was wise of Yardeni to add "or sooner." << Maybe Ed has changed his mind on DOW 10,000 by 2000. If he hasn't we have little to worry about. The Yardeni pundit watch is at... smartmoney.com I don't think the Market has ever been totally rational and never will be. Gottfried

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