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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Defrocked who wrote (3207)7/24/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
<< Regarding ETEC...its down 50% since Apr. what
hasn't been discounted in its price already???>>
I hate you Ph.D. types. you never accept the "I told you so wisdom." In this case, it exactly is the case. -g-
Seriously, their business deterioration has started only in 1998. When they first warned this year (late Jan or early Feb) the stock was at ~45. Then they missed the next Q. During the last Q conf call, they said the business is slow but they are very optimistic about a bout of orders from Japan. Do you believe that? For a specific Q, they said they haven't seen any order cancellations only some pushouts. The mask makers (e.g. PLAB), have already warned and indicated that they are cutting down on staff and orders. Besides, semi equipment biz in general is not doing great - that is probably an understatement.
This Q (ending July 31) they are expected to earn .70+ perhaps on flat revenue. I think they will fall-short of it - significantly. Other reasons:
1) The stock is mortally wounded. In a market melt down ETEC is not exactly a safe haven.
2) ETEC is no AMAT - at best they are marginal players in the biz.
3) You may be looking at the drop from the manic peak. But I am looking the drop from 45 (in Feb) as not significant. Considering how other marginal players fared (pria, mtsn, klic etc.) I think this one has a lot lose.

I think they will pre-announce towards the end of the month or early next month. just speculating.
-MMV
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