Gottfried,
Re: "Can you believe in these two statements at the same time?"
Yes, I think those two statements are not conflicting. In the big picture regarding the markets, "Trees don't grow to the sky". Yes, I buy this logic fully.
However, each semi-equipment (or oil services) downturn has to be examined for the reasons for that particular downturn in order to get an understanding of what is happening and to even begin to "predict" how that downturn can be overcome. That's why looking at the '96 downturn and subsequent recovery and saying, "See there, we'll have a repeat performance" does not make sense at all to me. And that does not conflict with my earlier statement. History has always required us to have an understanding of each event in order to figure a way out, IMO.
That said, I can see how you thought my statements may have been conflicting, and I guess it's possible that you still may, and that's okay.
Also, thanks for the Yardeni watch site information. I don't follow him very closely (almost none, in fact). I perhaps should start (?)
Re: "I don't think the Market has ever been totally rational and never will be."
You get no argument from me there. But, I would say the insanity lately has been more than usual.
Regards,
Teri |
