Greg I think you guys misunderstand me. Each stock is invested in by people from many different perspectives and styles. There are those on board who so firmly believe in this company that would not sell the stock until it faces serious set backs. Actually, there are even those who are so in love with it that even in case of a serious set back will just shrug it off with "they will set it right next quarter" attitude. These are not the people that I'm addressing. By all means put every penny you have in this stock with the intention of holding it for the next 30 years no matter what the stock performance. But if you are such a person, why do you check the price every hour? Your mind is made up, so go and wait for the company quarterlies to be mailed to you. I am not taking a personal shot at anyone here. It is your money and whatever makes you happy, stick with it.
My goal here is to (significantly) trim down the expectations. Stocks don't just move on the fundamental expectations, they also move on the price performance expectations. The more realistic those expectation (both of them) the smoother the ride which is the best for everyone. When I hear people expecting 80 cents earnings without comparing those expectations with the company guidelines (or reality for that matter) or when I hear things like "I'm down 2 points, but I'm not worried because TDFX will be in 40s by the new year". (really no personal shot here I'm just using an example) Then reality is thrown out of the window. Using todays price the stock has to quadruple in 5 months to meet those expectations! When these expectations are not met, be it the 80 cent earnings or the price performance, these same people (and not necessarily those who posted such statements) will sell the stock, even though it is undervalued and by all realistic measure has done better than anyone expected. How low does the stock have to go before people abandon the hope that it will double in 3 months? That is what I really like to know. Ask yourself how can so many people (all those who are not buying TDFX) be so stupid not to see the opportunity of a life time to go from 13 to 40 in less than a year? Am I really the only one with enough brains to appreciate TDFX for the dimond that it is? We need people invested in this stock who have realistic expectations. All others please sell your shares now. You save yourself and the rest of us a lot of money and stress.
The institutions would love to buy this stock. A quick look at minute by minute money flow graph of block trades on TDFX shows that there was a fair amount institutional interest in TDFX in the morning after the earnings until around 12:40. At which point they called it quits because everyone with unrealistic expectations was too busy selling. So gone was a great opportunity for a turn around.
If you don't want to sell the stock, at the very least stop buying/trading/looking at it for a few months. It will not drop the stock to $4/share, it will help stabilize it. And even if it does drop to $4, if you are really the kind of person who looks 3,5,10 years down the road, you shouldn't care as it will eventually match its value.
"So even if we all dump the stuck, once an institution buys into it .. guess who will jump aboard? Loads and loads of - you guessed it - retail investors."
Nothing wrong with that. I just don't want the stock dominated by those with unrealistic expectation, because that makes the stock performance (and along with it some of us) very schizophernic. Right now the realistic near term future for this stock till the end of the year is rather bleak.
I personally can't believe that there's so little buying power that we're dropping below 14.
Please call your broker for a reality check.
Sun Tzu |
