Rick,
I too, am in awe of the capacity of the folks shorting AGPH. Both the economic power of the guys with the bucks, and the determination of the folks who are putting forth the bear case. The folks with the money couldn't care less about Agouron, and probably couldn't spell AGPH. They're in this to make money.
The folks who are making the bear case are smart folks, and have done their homework ... lots of due diligence, but they happen to be astonishingly blind in this case. They are simply incapable of balancing and weighing the data objectively. They've fallen in love with their short position, just like retail longs often fall in love with their long position. Consider this a gentle warning to those guys. I happen to like them, and I'm glad they're out there willing to take controversial stands on biotech hype stories ... of which there are several. So, guys, if any of you are listening, I suggest you survey the terrain one more time before you send your cavalry into the valley ...
Rick, I've reconsidered my position on a strategic buyout of all or part on AGPH. I had no business case for taking such a position ... just an emotional attachment to a fully independent AGPH.
There's a business case for an independent AGPH. It's a strong, viable entity that could carry a big market cap in a few years. They don't have to do a deal.
However, with the right terms, and the right partner, a 49% deal could make compelling sense. And I'm sure there's a price at which PJ and the Board would consider cashing in their chips as well. I doubt they're as emotionally attached to any one approach as I've been, which is a good argument for them managing the company, and not me.
Peter |
