(1) I said that 130 was an absolute top, not that it would get there!
(2) I said I thought it would reach 120, but wouldn't stay there, so I don't think my revised forecast is really that different. Dell may touch 120 by earnings time, but it will decline shortly thereafter, and won't reach that level again until at least mid-September, and more permanently in November. If you noticed on the graph, it does bob up and down during the month of August, but it doesn't really surpass its peak that it reached in July, 1997. It has gotten to 118, so it is not unreasonable to assume that it will get to 120, but I don't think it will stay there.
(3) Yes, I do change my forecasts as new info comes to my attention. What's wrong with that? If you look at my forecasts last year, they were pretty accurate.
No, I'm not covering every possibility. I don't think Dell is going to go below 100 or above 120 for the month of August. I think that's fairly specific. Also, I can add that Dell will probably reach 130 or better by September or early October, but then will decline in mid-October. I don't think anybody can be more specific, since you can only make general predictions about the market. More specificity would require more quantification and true fortune telling, which isn't possible.
Most importantly, I'm not saying I'm going to be right. Nobody can really know what the market is going to do. I'm just offering my opinion as to what I think will happen, just like you can offer your opinion about anything. |
