The bottom line is that I made money, but you lost it. And you can be sarcastic as long as you want, if it makes you feel better.
I told you before history and math are great teachers. You will see again who is right and who is wrong.
I told in previous posts all my reasons, why CA most likely will go down. It is too bad that you and other folks concentrated on off topic conversation instead of look at the obvious facts. The main difference between you and me is that I know about CA's internal troubles and you don't. You probably grown up in bubble environment and don't have practical experience with dictatorship influence on people's productivity and society moral. This is why I wrote my off topic comments, but you didn't understand my allegoric comments and extrapolation.
Sure, I could not predict 30% drop, but I was expecting significant and it happened, as you know now.
I can repeat my reasons again:
1. Because of TA. It looked suspicious that CA did hold 60 during tech rally. (Look at former potential victim CSC). Partially you know why, because of your lovely executive's sales.
2. Wang told that they are going to buy somebody anyway and soon ( it was, after CSC deal broke up). It means stock will go down after next announcement.
3. The desperate bid (unusual for Wang) for CSC. Pointed that the company is in bad shape and could not keep up in tech sector (it was in line with my internal knowledge). They just could not grow own consulting services and expand TNG sales fast enough in order to replace declining mainframe license fees and etc.
4. Because CA doesn't have middle management capable to drive high tec development and consulting service. Evolutionary only worst (in terms of technical productivity) people stayed in CA. The army structure cannot produce missiles and satellites, they just can deficiently run re-sell business. Solders train to obey not to think.
What is the stock today? 39 ? Take a look at DEC 1996-March-1997 period. Also consider margin calls for the next four three days, it will put additional pressure on the stock. Sit tight. Don't be shock to see low 30's or even 20's after market correction. It is takes time to build efficient high tec company.
I'm realist (not extremist), such big company will survive (even I will be happy to see it destroyed, because any dictatorship, anti progressive, anti human society has to be demolished).
So, I will make money on it, even I don't like CA.
Gall.
PS: About my reference to Bubble company. It was about CA's technical ability. The current structure can successfully sell anything from bubble gam to vacuum cleaners, but not high tec products and services. |
