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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp
APM 1.215-3.6%1:23 PM EST

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To: put2rich who wrote (12142)7/24/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Stitch   of 12298
 
thanh,

"what are the reason for the death of all those stocks? "

There is some differences between this down-turn and previous disk drive sector downturns.

One difference is that the rate of technical progress is more rapid then during past downturns but even this has been relatively linear in the sense that the acceleration curve of technology progress has always been with us. It is just that we have reached a point where the rate of change is having much more identifiable and disasterous results on those that fail to keep up. In addition the shift to MR placed extraordinary capital demands on the players. I have WDC, APM, RDRT, and Seagate in mind. All are examples of falling behind the curve.

The other subtle difference is that this over-capacity period has been accentuated by a shift in operating and buying practices in the OEM market and the consumer market. The shift to very low cost computers, the absence of new storage thirsty apps, the shift to BTO (build to order) and so-called "JIT" (just in time) models of demand pull, have all been sudden and have had the affect of amplifying this downturn.

Finally, the economic events in Asia came at a time when the overseas contenders (Fujitsu, Samsung, and Maxtor), each who had designs on stealing market share anyway, could apply new exchange rate rationales to their pricing models, which deepened margin losses for all. At the same time decreasing demand in Asia for the products as a result of the strong dollar lessened consumption rates.

All of this will be behind us someday...but these factors have protracted the effects of this industry's latest self inflicted wound.

Best,
Stitch

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