Steve-
I don't have Adams Harkness' numbers, but look at it this way:
Until recent weeks, some analysts thought the bottom would be Q4. But as some have been saying, the upturn won't happen until mid-99, at the earliest.
Previous estimates for 98?
Q3 .30
Q4 .28
Current estimates for 98?
Q3 .23
Q4 .19
Before, 1999 estimates may have been
Q1 .32
Q2 .39
Q3 .54
Q4 .75
FY 2.00
Now, they may look more like this:
Q1 .16
Q2 .19
Q3 .24
Q4 .31
FY 0.90
Basically, the upturn has been pushed out by 3-5 months, and the severity of the downturn has been increased, as reflected in the estimates.
NVLS could do well over $2.00 in FY00, but the market won't wait that long. As the rest of the estimates fall, the stock will look very expensive, and it could ultimately collapse, I believe. I think it could go lower than $28, although perhaps not for a month or two.
Todd |
