A quick observation or two, then I'll get back to lurking:
Remember when the 6:1 ratio when the merger was first announced? If that ratio is still true, then the distance between POKR and AVIA isn't all that far off. However, since the actual cash basis for POKR is .62 of AVIA, it looks like it should be a screaming bargain. So why aren't folks flocking to jump on board.
A couple of reasons: first, with the deal still in the future, there's lots of time for players (and most of the people on the sidelines right now are just that - players) are patiently figuring which side of the fence to play. Should they gamble on POKR, and the risk that any delay in getting trading shares out would ruin the chance to sell quickly, or should they pick up AVIA, which comes at a higher price but allows the quick-dump option?
Both are seriously down right now. But it appears that AVIA is being valued at the 6-1 ration while POKR is still kicking along in its .24-.32 channel. That should change as conversion time comes closer, and AVIA will probably perk up a bit as well.
So which way should you go? If you believe in the long-term, either grab POKR on the dips or wait 'til the merger's done and scoop up cheap AVIA. The quick hitters will be playing AVIA, knowing that they can get out fast.
ME? I'm long POKR. I've been picking up on the dips, and I'm holding a long-term debt from the company's founding. It, by the way, will be converted into trading shares of AVIA, but only after the merger.
the next month will be interesting. Keep nibbling on the dips. There should be a couple more bounces before its all over.
Have a good weekend, y'all. We now return to our regular programming.
Chick in NC
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