Jim, an insightful post!
You first point brings to mind John Bollinger, a TAer and former regular on CNBC. Being a survivalist, John actually preferred confining his analysis of market turns to rear view mirror stuff rather than doing actual forecasts. Yet, when pressed to give a forecast he always came prepared. One time he went into his usual 5 minute spiel explaining how the Dow had deviated from its 60 day moving average, this causing "sector rotations," etc., etc. When he was finished someone asked, "So John, where do you see the market headed over the next six months? Are you bullish?"
John answered, without breaking stride, " Yes, I think the market is going higher, but do believe we could see a helluva correction along the way."
John knew to cover his bases!
Geoff |
