Dear Anne,
Welcome to this FNTN thread and I agree with you about the over-abundance of posts that are absolutely empty of analysis.
I'm a former Wall Street analyst and my name is mud to a number of people on this thread precisely because I've been trying to bring some information to the table. (They equate efforts at fact collecting with trashing FNTN.)
Last night, after quite a while of online research, I figured out some publicly-traded companies that focus on the Intranet market.
No one has yet even noticed the posts except one person who literally frowns back at my post.
But I ask you -- some people are loudly proclaiming that FNTN will hit $30 before long. Gee, I sure hope so -- I own plenty. But Wall Street does put valuations on stocks based on *some* criteria and we might be able to figure out how the 3 others are being valued with a little effort. I will, at least, but then will think twice before sharing the conclusions if no one else even is interested in anything but "hope and hype."
Two days ago and yesterday I PMed the same releases about revenues that a poster did today to some of the regulars on the thread and got back the response that they "don't do numbers." Well, that's ok for now because all you need to know is general direction, but it won't be in the near future as the stock spikes up -- not if an investor wants to avoid a PNLK-type debacle.
It's more than an exercise to look at the charts of INRS, OTEXF, and RTRK because they show what we can expect in the future for FNTN's stock price. In a word - volatility. But not the "comfortable" kind of the past week (though read the thread and see how *uncomfortable* it made most holders). A 50-cent loss doesn't seem like much at this stage -- though it is in percentage terms. How about FNTN at 15 and a retracement to 8. If an investor doesn't do numbers, how do they know at that point whether to stand pat, sell, or add more?
Knowing when to get off a rocket is important -- high tech leads are not guaranteed to last forever -- ask Cisco or Lucent or COMS -- and the market that FNTN is targeting should be a very lucrative one. If it is that prosperous a market, why would they *not* have future competition? Look at the excellence of the OTEXF homepage and the extremely high quality of its clientele (Motorola, AT&T, Nissan, and they're already in overseas markets). and why blind oneself to the reality that FNTN already is having to market to some potential clients who have previously signed up with TheStreet.com?
And lots of people on the thread seem to be under the impression that the core people at FNTN have found a way to run a multi-million businesses with only a handful of people and that it will remain so forever. Is that how big businesses are built? Won't additional sales people will be needed, additional overhead, etc. (See OTEXF recent news release about why margins got pressured because of sales force ramp up.)
Not everyone can or wants to figure out the profit ramifications of these issues. Since I know the new website is not up yet and the promised audited figures have not arrived, I'm not doing spreadsheet analysis yet -- just keeping my fingers crossed like everyone else.
But once we have those milestones met, be sure I'll be crunching numbers,
If the stock is 8 and people here have made more money on the stock than they ever dreamed, how many are going to actually stay the course if a small hitch develops (they almost always do in early-stage companies, even in late-stage companies). Wow, I want to have a little advance notice of such an event before the herd (that doesn't do numbers) does.
So now you see why some people feel I'm a party pooper. Well, here's my question to the thread: are we at a party or are we investing?
Best of luck in your FNTN trading,
Ariella
P.S. Sorry for the very long post -- it took a while to write and it made me figure out why there is tension between me and a lot of posters on this thread. A professional investor at the outset begins to think about exit strategies. This is the basis for making investment goals. An amateur investor just says "I want more" and, therefore, never knows when it is the right time to sell. Professionals count on this difference because amateurs are who we sell our stock to before it tanks.
TechnoWiz will think in disgust that I'm gloating over the good trade I made in FNTN this week. Nah. I just know that the shorts aren't really here yet -- the MMs are far less of a problem -- but they'll be here as soon as we spike up some more. And I don't want to get caught flat-footed when they arrive. |
