Zeev,
Mostly agree with all your points but must question the correction scenario this fall. IMO, we are in the midst of a minor correction right now and before we head back up we may see 8300 on the Dow. A number of cos. have issued warnings for the first time and the Street is spooked. In addition, AG came out and hinted that he may need to raise rates. FWIW, I do not believe this for a minute. This is jawboning an extended market to levels he considers rational.
On another subject, I liquidated my WFR position earlier this year and was wondering what your thoughts were on this one. Do you still see 100 in 2000? With the delay of 300mm, this could be one of the last in the equipment group to recover.
BK
BTW, I like your scenario for the equipment group and the forward looking multiples. This market is becoming more forward looking every day, with the exception of this past week<GGG>. Additionally, the bar has been lowered to the groung for this group so when Asia does renew capex spending(It will, regardless of what the Bears say), we will see a dramatic reversal upwards of estimates. |
