My contention is that even if TAVA does show earnings it won't be nearly enough to justify the current stock value.
Like ZITL they have bet their future on a market that goes away in about 10 months.
Yes, a straw man argument.
This company had less than half as many personnel as today. I wager that it will have twice to three times as many by 2000, each of them billing hours.
And how you have the gall to compare a "silver-bullet" company like Zitel to TAVA is incredible. TAVA is a consulting firm that will utilize Y2K to boost its core business relationships as 2000 passes by. And based upon the increased revenues derived from Y2K work they will have the necessary staffing available to address larger clientele.
And as for KEA, that company has been under family control since 1968. TAVA/TPRO recently underwent a complete management overhaul aimed at expanding the business through the Y2K event. This has been a proven concept as shown by KEA, CSC, CHRZ, IMRS... etc. The only difference is that these companies are larger and thus able to handle larger clientele.
KEA currently has 66 million shares outstanding and trades at $53/share. That have contracts with over 500 clients(I've lost count) and show wonderful earnings. TAVA has over 100 contracts with their Fortune 500 clients and while smaller, no doubt will profit greatly from those relationships just as KEA has from its IT consultancy.
And John, why would these firms have given TAVA the time of day, let alone MASTER CONSULTING AGREEMENTS IF they hadn't felt there were value to this relationship?? Where in these agreements do you see any evidence that their will not be a continuing relationship in the core business?? You don't.
You use supposition and innuendo to sustain your argument, while TAVA has the presence of its press releases and the quality of those engagements to support how it is implementing is business plan.
No. TAVA is not overvalued given forward earnings projections. And NO, your argument that business will wane is not substantiated by the evidence being presented.
But that's alright, knocking the price of the stock down will only solidify shareholdership among those who grab their shares at these reduced prices and shake out the weak sisters. Then you will all cover your short positions and ride it back upward.
John, I don't wish to be derogatory with regards to your ability to analyze and assess a company, but please don't use the BS argument that business will suddenly dry up to nothing after Y2K. Companies are constantly upgrading their systems to improve efficiencies and profitability. TAVA has shown talent in this area in the past and will utilize the credibility they gain from Y2K to expand those opportunities years from now. To say otherwise is foolish, the height of idiocy, and frankly, quite deceptive.
And certainly, based upon this style of analysis you show, EACH AND EVERY stock in this current "market of stocks" is GROSSLY OVERVALUED based upon the Asian Crisis, earnings decrease, and the threat of disruptions from Y2K.
Why? Quite simply because there is no evidence that there WON'T be disuption of the global economy due to the Y2K glitch.
Regards,
Ron |
