JT, Re: Just A Few Remarks
I've been following GTW for some time. Put some folks in it when it was in the mid-thirties. I was not a happy camper to see it go down to 25. Was happy to see it in the 60's.
Nonetheless, last time I looked, it had a PE ratio (trailing) in the 80's. It missed its consensus earnings estimate by 14%, which does not make the street happy campers, particularly with no warning. Look what happen to MRK with a miss by a penny. I've got an opportunity target on GTW of 48.
The date choosen for the CPQ 30's was not accidental. I don't even worry that we'll see 34-35 again before then. It was interesting how all three box makers got killed with the GTW miss. Funny how the street thinks. As long as Dell does not disappoint, I believe that this one is in the bag.
I redrew my trend lines and the appropriate entry point on CAT should have been 49. A 2 1/2 year weekly trend line comes into play, as well as the down trend line from the last daily break out. We'll see, but in any case, I was a bit early with this 4,000 share commitment.
For sure, drawing these trend lines is an art and not a science. But, if you get them right, you can usually get a nice pop. Look at GE on Friday. In the face of a bad market, she sprung off it like a trampoline.
Thus far in July, most of my losses have fallen into two categories: 1) trying to play "news" stocks, and 2) jumping in before the trend line concept says to. I do not have the technology to play "news" stocks, as I cannot be quick enough on the trigger. Jumping in before the trend creates opportunity costs as I have to wait sometimes a week for the stock to come back to me. So, I simply no longer play the "news" stocks and will leave these for the faster gunslingers.
The trend issue is more complex. What I'm trying to do is discipline myself to do is simply put in the buy order and wait for the stock to come to me. Otherwise, I can easily miss the bounce. Yes, occasionally one will not honor the trend, or my trend line will be off, but I think if I play the percentages, I'll win. However, since this TA stuff is relatively new to me, I have had to gain the confidence in my ability to determine this issue.
BWDIK and all other disclaimers!
Berney |
