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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.52

+0.1%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (11712)	7/25/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) of 164684

v I think competition will start to impact Amazon.com significantly over the next 2-3 quarters. Rob, I cannot agree more. Borders has not made a large effort yet since they have not had the grand opening of their site. They also lag in user profiling and use of active page content, but that is not apparent to the new visitor or infrequent customer. Since the software to do these things is off the shelf, they should be able to come up to speed in that capability within a few quarters. BKS has made a huge difference in their site during the last few weeks. I have been working with Borders regarding feedback on their site. Both are fine firms and can afford the off the shelf software. With sales slowing from the high rates of the past. the first real impacts of the major competitors combined with a more saturated base of current internet users (ad bombarded 'til they are sick of it), and increased outlays for distribution and product expansion, I think the future earnings picture is likely to be upset as this quarters numbers roll in. There is another occurance. The exclusive contracts Amazon has on certain high profile sutes will be comming up for renewal. BGP and BKS are determined to out bid them. You will find very few sites listing Amazon for music because those sites have exclusives with other music vendors, etc. This war chest of money that people refer to regarding Amazon, will be gone at this rate by the middle of the year 2000. This is without a secondary offering and as growth slows, I doubt floating more bonds will be viable. I intend to enjoy watching Amazon go under financially. These comments from analysts and publications about valuating internet stocks beign difficult due to an entirely different concept, is a buch of garbage. Business fundamentals have not changed. Profits can only be maintained if the gross margin exceeds the expenses. It does not get any easier than that. Can Amazon do that with thier debt load, very doubtful. Glenn

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