A late night BAMBI Update
It was an interesting week to say the least. A 3.9% decline in the S&P is indeed noteworthy; but I'm not ready to throw in my bull horns for bear claws just yet.
For the week, BAMBI was a bearish 20 to 10. 15 of the DJIA stocks beat the Index, which I interpret as modestly bullish. The bullish signal indicator failed after having a perfect 10 out of 10 record. But, it gets another chance as there was one bullish signal this week (IBM).
Make no mistake about it, it was the worst reading since June 19. Since I started playing with BAMBI Jan 30, the bullish trend was intack for 11 straight weeks, then there was the week of 4/17 that was a tie, and then 9 weeks of bearish readings. The bullish trend started the week of June 26 on BAMBI.
I have a hard time believing that an intermediate bullish trend would only last 4 weeks. Alas, I don't have the experience with BAMBI to prove or disprove otherwise. It just seems strange to me that the Index would give a bullish signal last week and a bearish signal this week.
This will be the confirmation week. I expect a reversal back to bullish. With so many of the DJIA stocks at or near to their long term bottom channel, a further decline would have to break those trend lines. There is little doubt that BA, DD, GT, HWP, MMM and S have broken their long term trends. Several others, such as CAT are on the ledge. But, FWIW, my keys at this time are GE and PG, and both bounced very nicely off the trend lines. If they fail, then I'll turn out the lights. For this observer, I don't expect a major change until late Aug or early Sept, but this week will be important.
BWDIK and all other disclaimers.
Berney |
