Jan, all your theories on what's leading to a small float, are plausible.
The main problem is that the 11 mil. figure is just our working
assumption regarding the float, from SEC filings. As you mentioned,
if all 8 mil. of the shorts were boxed, there'd only be 3 mil. left.
I tend to think most pros would go with the boxed route, but would
probably turn to derivates because they're more flexible. Keep
in mind also that if investors keep their shares in a cash account,
or have the certificates delivered, they won't be in the float.
I think most institutions, and esp. hedge funds keep their
shares in a margin account (partly because they get a better
deal from the broker who is then free to loan out the shares),
but that's just a theory. Another problem with there being
such high short interest, is there isn't much fire power left
on the sell-side, not until 'natural sellers' such as employees
and insiders come along.
Looks to me as if the short sellers' future is the hands of AMZN
employees (who might axercise there ESOP's at this level), and
insiders (who probably won't exercise much, otherwise the SEC
will hold their feet to the fire. One thing that is likely,
however, is that AMZN could unravel as fast as it ran up --
there's a lot air underneath this one. |
