Katherine/all, [edited] ** Y2K *** the latest from Ed Yardeni...
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yardeni.com
Excerpt
THE DOOMSDAY DISTRACTION
Simple Logic. In the comic-classic movie "What About Bob?" phobic Bob (played by
Bill Murray) tells his psychiatrist that there are two kinds of people in the world: those
who like Neil Diamond and those who don't. In my opinion, there are two kinds of
people regarding Y2K: those who Get It (GIs) and those who Don't Get It (DGIs).
The GIs, like myself, are pessimistic about the eventual and inevitable outcome. I think
most GIs subscribe to the following four logical points:
1) There is a great deal at risk because computers have become so important to
the businesses and governments we all depend on.
2) With so little time and so much left to fix, there are bound to be significant
disruptions, malfunctions, and crashes in computer systems, including some
very vital ones.
3) All systems that fail will do so at the same time.
4) So there is no way it will be business as usual at the start of 2000.
Many DGIs believe that everything will be fixed in time because the consequences of
failure are obviously so grim. They have to be na‹ve optimists, in my opinion. I am an
optimist at heart too: Unlike Bob, I had a happy childhood. However, I think I am a
realistic pessimist and alarmist about the Year 2000 Problem. I am certainly not a
doomsayer about Y2K. I'm not predicting Dooms Day, just a wicked global recession
and a 30% drop in stock prices. Then there will be a great economic recovery starting
in 2001, and the Dow Jones Industrials should be at a record 15000 by 2005.
GM
Dr. Yardeni's site
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