Can you be more specific about your 'intuitive feeling' for AOL as another MSFT? MSFT has a monopoly on desktop PC's in which over 80% of all computers in the world are running Windows OS. Bill Gates used this monopoly to successfully push other software on the consumers. It worked.
AOL on the other hand, will never be able to create a monopoly like MSFT. Too many local ISP's and telephone companies are eyeing the business already, not to mention MSFT's new MSN strategy. AOL may remain its leader position, but it won't capture more than 30-40% of the market.
AOL today is more like AT&T 10 years ago, when MCI and Sprint together had less than 20% of the market share. (Quoting from memory.) As you know, the long distance telephone market today is much different. AOL has many more competitors than AT&T back then. Earthlink, Mindspring, AT&T, MSN, Netcom, GTE, PacBell, and hundreds of local ISP's are eyeing the market. Granted AOL currently offers 'communities' of chat and instant messaging that attract some people. But those features are phases which people will eventually grow out of. I am a die hard computer user who has gone through phases of USENET, IRC, Message Boards, and etc. I know most people do the same. More importantly though, none of these services are proprietary to AOL.
Congratulations on your MSFT holding. But if given a choice between MSFT and AOL today, I would put my money in MSFT.
Yikes |
