Good questions, Jan. As H. James Morris often points out, the run in Amaznon is "controlled". All this talk about valuation, albeit interesting, is a diversion from what is really happening. I think H. James gave a good list of scenarios for a fall, but it is doubtful that any of us can predict the timing. The Controllers have a lot of discretion left. But, I think they may be worried too. If you made a few billion in trading, I doubt that you would like to give it back. But it's got to be part of their business plan.
According to the daily calculations I was making up until last week, it appeared that the Controllers were buying in more shares than they could sell interday. They must be sweating about how they are going to unwind their huge long position. I think they were the sellers on 7/7. I'm not sure about 7/21. That appeared to be more of a technical drop (double top) initiated on small volume. I think that the 140 level has set the top. From here on, it is, most ideally for the Controllers, a slow downward trend. Most likely we'll see lots of bear rallies too.
One thing is clear, as soon as they sell off their controlling shares, they loose control of the game. Then, I expect an avalanche of selling. Until then, they can play cat and mouse with the smaller day traders like us. John's criteria for a drop are good to keep in mind:
(a) If one broke the agreement.
(b) If Bezos tries to sell off another 5mil shares.
(c) If some news came out that some of these Internet plays won't make (not debate) it.
(d) If Wall Street really starts to get hammered.
(e) I just sucked this 'Thing' dry so I'm moving on.
I wouldn't underestimate the potential for (a) or (d). These guys are probably only in a temporary partnership. The first one out the door will have the advantage. If things get rough, all deals are off. That is best argument for a crash which I can see.
I would think that monitoring the option volume is important. I expect them to buy lots of puts before a crash. If they sell calls, how would we know? |
