Julie, Bennett, Doug:
Let me first say that I'm glad I found this thread, don't know how I
missed it these past few weeks, could be worse, found Alkermes Pharm
(ALKS) listed under W for What about... .
Bennett, let me say I appreciate your in depth analysis and suggestions from previous posts, thanks. I hope that more good news
is forthcoming as I entered into this issue on the high end at 25 7/8.
An example of utmost trust in the opinion of a friend who has been on
the money in other issues.
Doug, I too own Neoprobe(NEOP) and had the pleasure of being in Las
Vegas when this issue shot up just shy of 3 points one day last week.
This company is going places too with their mono-clonal antibody scan
for tumor markers. I am a physician in a small rural hospital and on
one day received a call from my broker asking me for info on the company as he knew I had it in my portfolio and he had several people
call that day asking questions! To top it off, the head of ER actually staffs 5 or 6 different departments in central Ohio and I ran
into him while seeing a patient and he asked me about it as well. Seems like the docs in Columbus were all buzzing about it. For what it
is worth, a close friend in a biomedical implant business knows one of
the engineers who worked on the scanning device for the company. He no longer works for them but advised him to buy all he could afford if
he has the money. Battelle Institute is located in Columbus, and is a
think tank and research juggernaut who also helped the company. These
are the same people who developed the plastic rings to hold your six
packs together. Sorry for the diatribe on this site but it is worth a
look at this company since they have pulled back from their advance.
Julie, I liked your statement regarding blindly investing in an area
which one is not fully knowledgeable in and the fear it can induce. I
always thought Peter Lynch hit the nail on the head with the philosophy of investing in what you know and use. My real life exper-
ience was I invested heavily in medical stocks which I knew 4 years ago when I established my pension plan. Well, Mrs.Clinton, whom I did
not know, came into power and devastated my plan almost overnight and
it took 2 1/2 years to make up the lost principal and the unearned
portion of what I "could have earned in other investments". On the
other hand, I saw managed care as the rage and bought Humana when it
was down and out. Rode it up until I picked up the local Tampa paper
while spring breaking it and read how Medicare was looking at their
billing practices and it wasn't looking good. I bailed out promptly
knowing full well that the loss of Medicare reimbursement and triple
damages plus interest on overcharging was the rule. Bottom line,
it didn't even cause a ripple, the stock went up another 30% and about
7 months later the analysts started to cry wolf and trashed the stock
for those same reasons. I guess what I want to say is you can have all the right answers and there will be some variable that comes along
and nails you(Hilliary) or you can be so on top of an issue and that
foresight causes you to miss a big move up or cause you to enter an
issue too early during the lean years as some of these bio-techs. My
current approach is to shoot for 20% after commissions and if I still
feel strongly about an issue just sell 30-50% of the position. If it
goes up after I sell, oh well, can't be blamed for making 20%.
Regarding manufacturing and IDPH, Investors Business Daily last week
had an article on Merck having problems with their new AIDS protease
inhibitor. The dilemma as Julie alluded to indirectly is the long
down time needed to build the facility and then ramp-up production to
meet demand. All of this before final approval by the FDA! Merck
thought they only had a 10% chance of approval so they dragged their
feet and now the activists are accusing them of stonewalling and padding the coffers of a PA pharmacy-by-mail house due to the short
supply of drug. They too formed an alliance with a Japanese firm for
excess capacity until their plant can be expanded and they can assume
control. Big bucks tied up if the product gets canned(eg. Chiron and
their herpes vaccine).
This is of course IMHO, happy investing to all; go IDPH< NEOP<NVLS et.al.
Aaron |
