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Technology Stocks : Gateway (GTW)
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (6267)7/26/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Kory  Read Replies (1) of 8002
 
I guess your definition of proof and mine are radically different. Apparently you do not understand the definition of the word "estimate". I own dozens of stocks. Analysts adjust earnings forecasts on some of them every month. I do not call the analyst and scream liar every time they do this. Business conditions change - if you ever operated a real business you would know that there are up times and down times. Predicting them is difficult.

But this is not good enough for todays market. A company is expected to know and announce months and years ahead of time how much money they will make, and if they don't make it or more, spoiled shareholders and lawyers start yelling. Give me a break. It reminds me of gamblers playing blackjack swearing that the house is cheating them.

I am not naive and understand that companies may make optimistic and sometimes unethical statements when large amounts of money are at hand. Unfortunately analysts and shareholders drive this process because of their impatient demand for knowledge ahead of reality. I think you have a long way to go before you can claim that Gateway knowingly made false statements.

Your points:

1 & 2) Your definition of the word "clearly" is also different from mine. Gateway's statements were vague, IMO. You can bitch all you want that they were poor forecasters, but you are the one drawing conclusions from vague statements.

3) I don't remember Gateway ever saying they "made money". But in any event, this depends about what you are talking about when you say "money". Before charges? After charges? Before or after tax? EBITDA? Cash flow? Sorry, but accounting profit is a complicated thing - it can't be simplified just because your knowledge of it is limited.

4) Analysts estimates ranged down to $.39 per Zacks. As for missing estimates by 20%, you obviously can't perform mathematics either. $.06 short of the average analyst forecast of $.44 is less than 14%, not 20%.

This is a volatile industry. You obviously believe a significant downturn is occurring. I tend to agree somewhat. What I don't agree with is your accusing people of lying when you don't have facts or proof to back it up.
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