Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (124)	12/9/1996 11:40:00 PM
From: T. Mann	of 6136

Hi Richard: Thanks for the reply! Do not take me wrong. I do not short AGPH myself. I generally do not short good companies even if their stock price is too high. But we all have heard these arguments about next Amgens and BCHXF's. If only everything was always perfect. None of us really knows what are the manufacturing issues AGPH will be facing. 2mln tablets is only 200 kg of the chemical. This is small quantity. They will need to scale up. We also do not know the tox/efficacy data from phase II/III. We do not know if there will not be some "cure" by 98 or HMO's will not stop paying for AIDS treatment. Etc., etc. Because everybody is so excited about AGPH with all the momentum players already in the stock, I think it looks now more like Iomega than AMGN. The market is not rational, it wants "great stories" and most of the stories are already in the price. AGPH may well be $200 a share in 98 but it will be $40 before it. I may be a little too gloomy but I lost some money and optimism in 96 because I've seen great stocks falling through the floor (remember? goes up on rumor, etc.). T.

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