Smart Investor,
Thanks for replying to my comments. I share your concern about WS picking a fight with Greenspan--that would be disasterous! Although I was pissed with him for making his comment last week, upon reflection I don't think it was so bad. I mean, almost everybody who contributes to the SI threads has expressed concern about the high stock market valuations--why can't the Fed Chairman do the same? Maybe there's some truth to it.
Reference AMD: On a purely technical basis, there's probably still a lot of risk in the stock, even after the recent buy recommendations. The reason a lot of us are bullish on the stock is that AMD seems to have pulled off a coup with the K6. The design represents the first real competition to the Pentium and Pentium Pro (Apologies to Fuchi). What's also exciting is that the design can be used for laptop computing, because of its relatively low power consumption. Intel doesn't currently have anything to compete with it, although I think they will come up with something late next year (my speculation). So, barring any major design flaws, AMD is poised to sell a lot of K6s in 1997.
As for the other issue of selling now and maybe buying back later, I agree with Kiriakos--my experience has also taught me that it's tricky to time the market. It's best to buy and sell based on fundamental investment decisions. I think there are stocks you can time profitably (USRX is an example); I just don't think AMD is one of them right now. It's momentum has been in only one direction.
Len
PS. The perfect timing blunder would have been to sell everything right after the election. The irony is that nearly everyone, including respected market experts, were citing historical data to support a lackluster market after a presidential re-election.
Eventually it's all going to collapse, or seriously contract; but if you haven't been invested in the bull market long enough to make some gains, the inevitable correction can end up hurting a lot more. The 'you', of course, is rethorical; I don't pretend to know or lecture you on investing. Just my 2 cents. |
