Hi everyone -- A week ago while surfing the Net I came across a link for an Israeli investment bank that writes an investment letter. In June they did a three-page report on Pharmos. I ordered a sample copy -- my only reason for not subscribing is that the newsletter is on hard copy -- so not only does it come out only once a month, but there is also a delay for snail mail to the US. giza.co.il
Nevertheless, it was nice to see a well-known Israeli firm following PARS. On the whole, the information provided has been covered already on the thread. They are expecting "significant revenue" advancement in 1999 on the basis of Lotemax and Alrex -- $25 million from the US and Europe combined. FDA approval or LE-tebryamycin will in their opinion add another $7 million to $10 million per year in full production. On the question of liquidity, the report observes as we have that with two drugs actively coming into the pipeline, "future capital raising will likely be easier and less costly than previous efforts."
The report breaks out revenues at various projected market shares for the three opth. drugs (US market only --double for Europe -- and after cut to BOL and royalty payments):
At 10% of possible $100 million market,
Lotemax portion for PARS would be $ 2.9 million;
At 10% of possible $250 million market,
Alrex portion for PARS would be $7.3 million;
At 10% of possible $60 million market,
LE-T portion for PARS would be $1.7 million;
At 20% of possible market share,
Lotemax portion for PARS would be $ 5.9 million;
Alrex portion for PARS would be $14.5 million;
LE-T portion for PARS would be $3.4 million.
At 30% of possible market share,
Lotemax portion for PARS would be $ 8.7 million;
Alrex portion for PARS would be $14.5 million;
LE-T portion for PARS would be $5.2 million.
I take a lot of heart from these projections because, though most of us are wishing we could be fully up to market share within the first month of product rollout, we really understand the drugs need a chance to grow in market share and, in the case of LE-T, to get FDA approval and then to get marketed.
But even if we win a very modest 10% of the US and European markets, we're looking at a company 18 months from now with $25 million in revenues just from these three drugs. Subtracting yearly expenses of $6 million or $7 million leaves a fat increment to get to the bottom line.
PARS is a vastly under-rated stock, and, as other people on the thread have pointed out HU-211 is a freebie.
Happy trading,
Ariella |
