I haven't posted here since May 8th (# 538, which I'm responding to, and #541) but I have been casually following this thread. Although the price today is 8 points lower than two months ago, I still am not interested in buying now, for the same reasons. The audit isn't finished! Valuespec, you argue often, but you've taken a beating on this stock gambling that "the audit won't be so bad" and "even at this price it's a good value." Where is your patience?
Three things need to be resolved before the price can recover: the audit, Forbes, and the ABI deal. The ABI deal has gotten less notice here than it deserves. Because the stock price is so weak the deal will cost CD more shares and thus be more dilutive. It's not a good deal for CD now, but they are contracted to it (Silverman confirmed this to a reporter).
This is a huge ongoing bull market we're trading in. This market has no sympathy for problem stocks; it just kills them. Like I said before if you wait and buy after the problems are resolved, you might pay $18 or $20 a share, but with the coast clear that will still prove to be a bargain, and in the meantime, you can put your money to work somewhere else, and you don't have to worry about a CD margin call at 13, like our effusive friend Valuespec.
Sorry to pick on you, Spec, but your analysis of CD has, for as long as I've looked at this thread, sadly neglected the real risks here--yes, even at this price.
I'm still planning to buy CD, because (here we agree) it will be a great opportunity one day, but that day will come after the three concerns I mentioned are resolved in a manner favorable to future operations. |
