Lisa,
>>>>Fred and Chris have parabolic sells on the NAZ ( I am not exactly sure where Don is on this..I have to analyze his posts I have printed out...I cant take Don unless I print it out and sit down and think about it ;-)))<<<<<
For the bigger picture I have definitely gone negative for this market. As for this week I had a CLASS 1 BUY to the upside on FRIDAY and intraday the DOW popped about 100 points to the upside. My CLASS 1 BUYs are only good for the initial pop and in the past since JAN the initial pop would be good for alot more than just 100 points.
As I stated over the weekend, MON and TUE are key days since if the market does not continue up or at least remain flat, I will interpret that as the market getting alot weaker and that the decline will be greater for the bigger picture. That does not mean that it will head straight down right now to the 8600 range which is the first major support area.
I made the comparison, in reverse, to the JAN-MAR period when I received CLASS 1 SELLS and the market still dipped, but the dip was only 50-150 points and in some cases was only intraday and the market still continued up hard. If Friday's intraday bounce of 100 points is all we are going to get from this CLASS 1 BUY, then I will consider it as a hint that the trend has changed from a RANGE TRADING TREND to a DOWNTREND, and I dont mean a short/mid-term downtrend but something quite major where we could head back into the 7000's or even lower. If you recall, a few months ago I had mentioned the possibility of 7700-7800 range.
Please also keep in mind that even though we had moved up I still considered that we were not in an UPTREND but in an RANGE TRADING TREND. Going back to MARCH I indicated the trading range of 8750-9300 then amended it to 8600-9400/9500 on the basis that the trading range was just getting larger. So if we do not continue to move up or remain flat today and tomorrow, such action would give an early warning/confirmation that the trend is changing from a TRADING RANGE TREND to a DOWNTREND that the DOW should go lower than 8600 range.
Getting back to this week, I felt that per my CLASS 1 BUY and my TICK ANALYSIS on FRIDAY the DOW should move up this week and should regain 50-60% of last weeks lost and then the actual top to arrive during the 4 day period of July 30 - AUG 4, then down.
To further explain, lets say that the DOW drops more than 50-75 points but then pops strong after TUE but does not set new highs,then the technical hint of a DOWNTREND(lower lows) is still intact.
I hope I explained my position clearly.
Right now the futures are down significantly, so to start this week it doesnt look good for long positions.
Seeya |
