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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.730

-0.7%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: BOGEY who wrote (794)	7/27/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) of 34857

Unnngggghhhh!!! "Mobile Phones & Terminals showed an increase of 19 percent in sales and a strong operating income. Ericsson has very well defended its share of the market for mobile phones during the period." Is this a scissor kick in the solar plexus or what? How sad is that "defended its share very well" when the overall market is growing at 30%-35% pace? The mobile phone sales growth score in Q2 is now: * Nokia 50% * Ericsson 19% * Motorola -1% Call me a zealot... call me an unrepentant nationalistic flagwaver... but Nokia is beating the living daylights out of the other Big Three companies. The seismic market share shift results from one miscalculation shared by Ericsson and Motorola: they decided not to challenge Nokia's new -98 models. They decided to stick with their old platforms and save the model make-overs to -99. Now it's obvious that this was a big blunder... but it's too late for tears. Nokia's 6100 is a bona fide barnburner. The next big guns, the ultracheap high-volume 5100 and the ultraexpensive low-volume 8810 are already rolling out of the factories from Shanghai to Salo. With just one model Nokia punctured Motorola's sales growth entirely and halved Ericsson's growth. Take the kids to upstairs: from now on it's gonna get really ugly. And not one of the industry experts saw this coming. Last Tuesday Ericsson was projected to come up with 35% growth. Deutsche Morgan, fire those bums and hire me: I'll work for 10% of their salary and can't possibly screw up worse. We are now seeing a scenario that is completely unanticipated by industry experts. When the dust clears, I expect to see some major revisions in the relative evaluations of the three companies. Meanwhile, Nokia might lose some ground as the investors try to figure out what the score is. Penny, even WSJ has to realize that something big is going down now. May the spirit of the ancient lynx god watch over us. Tero

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