Some scenario...
From the www.euy2k.com mailing list / discussion board.
'From: SDL <slindstrom@uswest.net>
Subject: Response to Is this a lot of hype for something somewhat trivial
Date: 1998-07-21 01:26:57
Embedded logic on chips is the least of your worries Pat. Please read on to see
what I mean.
<p>
I can only qualify my predictions with the following example of recent human
behavior.
<p>
Toy companies can create enough hype, demand, and perceived shortage of supply
to cause educated adults to line up at midnight, in the dead of winter, in front
of toy stores to buy stuffed animals that cost under a dollar to manufacture,
for $50.00 dollars, for children under the age of two who find the toy about as
amusing and interesting as their most recent bowel movement.
<p>
Food for thought: The real problem will be realized long before the calendar
flips to 2000. People reacting to all of the potential Y2K scenarios will
create most of the initial problems.
<p>
1. Food: Most of the grocery stores and supermarkets will burdened by people
attempting to stockpile food before the Millenium. Food shortages will start to
become reality some time in the third quarter of 1999. Grocery store chains are
predicting seventy percent stock outages by November 1999 and ninety percent by
December. Panic will escalate.
<p>
2. Fuel: People will attempt to stockpile extra fuel before the "crises" hits
and will test the fuel distribution channels. Fuel rationing will become a
reality early in the third quarter. Local fuel storage accidents are inevitable.
Old Joe next door will not realize that the leaky barrels of gas and fuel oil
are a hazard and will most likely store it incorrectly.
<p>
3. Finances: Many people will attempt to liquidate assets and transfer funds
into Y2K proof investments. This will cause panic in the financial markets and
send the economy into a mild recession. When the economy becomes unstable, the
Federal government will be forced to react and stabilize the economy by limiting
trading and transfer of funds. This will drive public panic and force the
economy into a recession similar to the 73-75 fuel crisis. The economy will be
on a downward spiral that will continue for a minimum of nine months to a year.
Panic will multiply.
<p>
4. Communications: Satellites will fail! Satellite communications will start
to break down sometime in late August and early September of 1999 forcing people
who have been unconvinced up to this point, to focus on the reality of the Y2K
problem. People will become scared and the panic level will increase. People
will clog all available channels to share the panic. Other communication
channels not directly affected by the Satellite failures will have to pick the
slack and will be slowed at best. Other communication systems, such as the
Internet will start to grind to a very slow pace as millions of networks are
brought down for Y2K upgrades. A significant percentage will remain down for an
extended period of time. Other communication channels (phone system, postal
system) will not be able to assume the load and will slow even more. The panic
level will continue to rise.
<p>
5: Emergency Services: As panic ensues, local government emergency services will
be taxed to their limits. Local government resources slated for Y2K project
management will be forced to deal with the taxed emergency service problems and
will lose site of their other Y2K initiatives. This will slow the overall pace
of all local government Y2K preparedness. The local governments will be forced
to ask for more resources from the Federal Government and some sort of military
action will become necessary. These additional resources will be called into to
deal with the less violent human behavior. All of the armed and undereducated
doomsayers will just start to get warmed up.
<p>
6. Health Care - The Least Prepared: The health care industry will be burdened
by the rise in imagined and real illness brought on by stress, panic and mental
illness. Panic related injuries will steadily increase as the Millenium
approaches. Most Y2Late initiatives will be hampered by operational needs
gouging into scarce human resources. Lack of contingency planning and qualified
professionals will force hospitals to use all available resources for emergency
services. The elderly, mentally ill, handicapped and terminally ill will not
receive adequate health care. Outbreaks of infectious disease will increase due
to lack of timely treatment. Expect out of control influenza and pneumonia
outbreaks. Medical research will be set back many months.
<p>
6. Government Communication: The Government will start its communication
campaign in the first quarter of 1999 to attempt to control the panic. The
Government will tell Americans that everything will be OK and ask them not to
panic. In the mean time the military will be preparing to execute Martial Law.
<p>
7. Government Action: Martial Law in the mildest form will happen in the second
quarter of 1999. They will show up with their helpful hats on to ASSIST local
governments, meanwhile silently taking control of vital food, water, fuel and
utility distribution channels. They will also position themselves in strategic
areas to deal with potential local and national security threats (domestic
terrorists, militant groups and poor people). Full scale Martial Law will
happen late in the third quarter of 1999.
<p>
All of these things are easily predictable in the mildest increase in public
panic. Imagine the impact of and panic created by the recession during the
seventies, The Great Depression of the thirties, the country in a state of war
and the entire country hit by some sort of natural disaster. Now add it all up
and shorten the timeline to a six-month window. Attempt to predict human
behavior.
<p>
The computer problem, first and foremost, is a human behavior problem!
<p>
How will people react?
<p>
Please email comments and insights to slindstrom@uswest.net. |
