David,
Re: "Capacity does not go up proportionately and varies from company to company."
Yes, of course, what you're saying is true. However, I don't think we are in a "black" area, as in totally dark. It seems reasonable to me that we should be able to come up with a ball-park type figure of MU's new output per month. And thank you for your good MU information and understanding. I have followed the semi industry for about 3 years, but mostly from the equipment angle. Course we know these all are very connected to the other's fates... prosperity breeds prosperity, hard times breed hard times, et al.
Re: "Some memory companies still have not been able to manufacture these [PC 100] which cuts them out of the main business. Micron supposedly is at 70% wafer starts that are PC100."
What's kept them from being able to manufacture these PC 100 chips? Probably you are going to say: money.
Re: "Well as you migrate production from 16mb chips to 64mb the ramp up has yield issues. Also the ramp up from PC66 to PC100 certainly has yield issues."
Yes, we could probably say all ramp ups have yield issues. But once we get past that point, the learning curve kicks in and yields get better and better. They become "old pros" at producing the new product and output gets very high. After the initial learning curve period, I would think the benefits of the shrink would become fully realized and we may could even say that after the learning period capacity does go up proportionately (??). This is a quasi-statement. -g- Part question, part statement.
So, do you guys have opinions on this market's breadth (has been so weak lately)? What's the deal with the nifty-fifty? Doesn't look healthy to me....
Teri |
