Gabriel:
Thank you for your hard work and excellent analysis...
A couple questions/comments:
<<Adding in the the April vs July factor [April was reported to have been a very soft month] I come to a Q2 unit sales volume of 1.800 million units [with a + or - factor of 25,000 units]>>
I think we will be safely over 1.8 million and maybe as high as 1.85.....It appears from my (limited research) that April is pretty much the worse month for PC sales each year....especially, this year!
July unit sales, I think, will be significantly higher than April...I could see the substitution of July for April sales having a positive impact as high as + 70,000...
<<Gateway recently reported a sequential decline in ASP of 2.4% and I've used a sequential ASP decline of 3% for DELL resulting in a net ASP of $2392 for Q2.>>
I have seen in print where (supposedly) Gateway's ASP has gone down 12% and 2.4%.....Since you also quote the 2.4% figure, I am assuming that is accurate....Did you get this off of their (Gateway's) reporting?
<<Keeping everything else constant from my estimates which were posted
last week I come to an eps of 50›.>>
.50 would be just fine. .51/.52 would be heaven.....I got a feeling that (you are right in one of your earlier posts that) the whisper number will probably be .50 by the time earnings rolled around.....so .49 could turn out to be a disappointment for some (having said this, if the whisper goes to .50, I think we should see 125-130 before earnings)...
<<Interesting to note that US volume increased 21.5% sequentially this
quarter - the largest volume increase since Q3, 97. Presumably, a good
part of this incremental volume was due to the advertising campaign.
Based on my calculations the $20m ad spend for Q2 [total $70 budget] was completely absorbed within the 11.30% Operating Expenses thanks to this increase.>>
Dell went all Pentium II in the second quarter, I am assuming that the margins will be better on these units vs. comparable PC's sold in Q1....also, I would think on the consumer side, the ad campaign, Fortune cover article, and CNN piece pushed tremendous U.S. consumer growth...
<<Overall, with an estimated Q3 eps of 57› and Q4 eps of 66› fiscal '99 should come in around $1.481 billion after tax or $2.09 eps. - a 60% increase over fiscal 1998 results - based on total revenue of $18.6 billion.>>
Wouldn't it be EPS $ 2.17.....(.44+.50+.57+.66= $ 2.17) ?
<<In my view DELL is in great shape and looking better all the time. >>
Couldn't agree with you more.Man, what powerful trends Dell is riding.....Upgrades in Europe because of the Euro and Y2K....(Did you see Eckhard Pfeiffer quoted in the Wall Street as saying he thinks Y2K will help sales)...European companies upgrading en masse as a result of being "under-computerized", the acceptance of on-line (internet) purchasing, consolidation of marketshare to the biggest in the industry....etc, etc.....
Again, thanks again for your hard work. It is great to have such talented individuals on the thread! |
