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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: bearshark who wrote (22441)	7/27/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Hi Bearshark, I'm with you on not being fond of the OEX Or SPX, I do refer to them a lot, but I really rely more on my own NF , and M10 ..while looking at the divergence / convergence of liquid vs not so liquid..that is the basic..but it's not a holy grail. I'm also not found of the DJI , will look at your DJX more now that you brought it up. The Wil5000 only updates after the close, but it gives general market sentiment (most of the time.) At least often enough I hate to bet against it no matter what my other stuff says. But I don't exactly bet on it either. While for a long time I was looking at the "breadth" of the market such stuff as A/D and all much the way the Gurus on CNBC and others talk about it, BUT just hit me as they were talking about the narrow amount of stocks carrying the market..that this traditional method may be very misleading. Sort of like the indexes can be missleading..We have price weighted, no weighted, and market cap weighted indexes ( which are a combination of price and shares out standing ) What if we looked at breadth not exactly by issues, but by shares outstanding..( to be more accurate we would need to look at Float ) but getting that on an index would be to much work. To run it to the extreme so as to illustrate what I'm saying GE has 3.2B shares out standing and float while UK has only 136m with 90m float. Forgetting the market cap or price GE represents via float GE has 3.5 more breadth.. The Data we get from wall street and the gurus can be very misleading and with no way to tell when it is or isn't. Just like my grip about them not showing a percentage of short sales on a running basis , man it's like they don't want anyone to really know what's going on and just feed us baby food. And then have their pundits come out and tell us how good or bad this garbage that they feed us is. Jim

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