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Biotech / Medical : Duramed (DRMD) Synthetic Estrogen Product
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To: Doug Bean who wrote (779)7/28/1998 1:25:00 AM
From: Robert L. Ray   of 1837
 
Doug,

A while back I sold my DRMD after holding for a fairly long while. The reason I sold was my concern about the very long range market potential of Cenestin even if approved. And yes I think it will eventually get approval and DRMD will get a pop in the market after approval. It's just that eventually Premarin and Cenestin will be replaced by a more selective type of Estrogen replacement drug. AHP and Ligand (and perhaps PFE also) are working on Estrogen mimics which will be much more selective in their action than regular estrogen. In other words Estrogen as we now know it has some bad side effects such as an increased rate of cancer. The more selective drugs will eliminate those side effects. I put my proceeds from my DRMD sale into LGND. Sheese, I feel sorta dirty all over because LGND is in partnership with DRMD's mortal enemy, AHP on this but ya gotta do what ya gotta do:) I can see it now.... AHP keeps fighting the Cenestin approval tooth and nail and finally...... FINALLY, when Cenestin gains approval APH starts a marketing campaign for these new Estrogen mimics that don't have any side effects and thus pulls the rug out from under Censestin and Premarin both. But they won't care because they'll own a nice piece of the new pie. Admittedly these estrogen mimics are still quite a few years down the road but they most definately seem to be coming. DRMD may very well still be a bargain at these prices but at this point my money is on LGND. DRMD will have a window of opportunity after Cenestin is finally approved to make some pretty good money. It's difficult to say how long that window will stay open though. For their sake I hope they make lots of hay while the sun is shining.

Best of luck.
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