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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (22519)7/28/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Bonnie; Be careful, I see some of them ( very few ) as maybe
good long term bets. I nibbled at TDW two weeks ago but sold
it as it didn't hold. Cut backs in production to get the oil
price up won't help many of the drillers.
The ones involved in workover rigs will get hit the hardest,
the average analcyst or investor don't seem to understand the oil business at all. While some companies have forward contracts locked
in up to the next five years others don't. Let one big company take
a hit and they all fall in sympathy. I like TDW but one may have to
hold on for a while she is still below were I sold at and tempting
but maybe at the risk of getting hammered say if RIG does a big correction.
Also the oil bis is not always on the up and up so it can be hard
to figure.
I remember the oil glut back in the 80ts and more than half of the
drillers went belly up ! TDW was not a public traded company ,
and most of what you find trading now are companies that came
out of the ashes. Look their debt over good, TDW will survive
but I'm not sure of some of the others, people pin them to oil
prices to fast..but longer term Asia will have a bigger effect
on oil than on any other thing I can think of.
Jim
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