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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST
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To: LemurHouse who wrote (1576)7/28/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: potamus  Read Replies (1) of 3813
 
Andy,

Sorry for jumping in. I have been reading this thread for a long time and I appreciate the information provided on this thread by everybody.

I am becoming quite concerned with what is happening with NVLS. Over the last two quarters, accounts receivable has increased to over 170 million. This quarter we heard management warning that revenue will be 25% lower next quarter. Is it possible that they pulled in some orders from the next quarter to make their numbers for the june quarter, maybe hoping that orders will pick up later?. Then instead when orders actually declined, they were left with no option but to direct analysts lower?.

I looked at the Lehman brothers site and they have chopped estimates
for Novellus to something like low to mid teens for the next 4 quarters. Strangely enough, they have left estimates for the last two quarters for 99 unchanged ( > $0.45). A 25% revenue decline with gross margins in the 55% range would indicate that next quarters earnings would be around $0.10 (approx.) which is what all these analysts are projecting.

I am inclined to believe that novellus will actually report something like 20-25 cents combined in the next two quarters. If that is the case, anybody care to speculate what the stock price might be in the next 6 months?.

Farooq

PS: I sold all my NVLS a couple of days ago. I guess it is going to go to $50 now :->.
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