Trico Marine Services (TMAR) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.41

0.0%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Grommit who wrote (600)	7/28/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) of 1153

Even if you use a day rate of $6000 you CANT MATHEMATICALLY arrive at his earnings projections. You'd need to use $4400 day rates in the gulf and $8900 in the North Sea. The North Sea is over $15000 and accounts for 40% of TMAR's earnings now. The Gulf accounts for 50% of TMAR's earnings and 75% of that 50% is gas related, not oil. the ONLY way you arrive at such ridiculous earnings is if TMAR uses some strange debt scheme to acquire more ships and somehow the cost of interest decreases earnings along with cost of vessel upgrades (assuming they acquire boats that are not revenue ready) <<Dayrates are now at $6,000 in the gulf. R James was blindsided. The incremental cost of operating a boat is $2500. Rates can go lower. Utilizations are crappy in the gulf. Rig count will drop. Gas rigs will drop in 2nd half>> Pure conjecture that gas rigs will drop in the 2nd half in the gulf. gas use goes up in the 2nd half of the year, not down. Utilizations are not crappy. They're running 90% of available boats at Tidewater, 85% of available boats at Hvide and nearly 95% of available boats at TMAR. All other boats are undergoing drydocking, double hulling, etc. They're double hulling the boats in preparation for more exploration in deeper waters. I've been watching the rig count. Pure BS. oil use is increasing by over 1 million barrels a month worldwide. demand for oil is not slowing. refinery capacity is at 96%, among the highest capacity numbers in history. a slight increase in demand and... capacity can't run past 100%. why not use actual numbers and not your hyperbole

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