T.
In looking at your $40 target, I personally think a couple of things would have to occur for AGPH to move to $40 or below:
1. The market would have to stink: thats very possible.
2. AGPH would have to have a serious delay filing their NDA. Possible as well, but no indications thus far, although you never know.
3. The FDA would have to stall on review. Possible, but not likely given the expedited review process. I'm looking for a one month to two month review. Although with Kessler leaving, I'm assuming that nothing changes at the FDA concerning these quick reviews.
4. The FDA would have to reject Viracept. Possible again, but all indications are that it is unlikely. Data thus far, shows Viracept to be far superior to many of the currently approved PI's.
AGPH tested the $40 range just a few weeks ago, bouncing strongly off $47 to the $60 or so its currently trading at. One thing you have to bear in mind, AGPH has 13+ million shares outstanding, so its market value really isn't all that high given the potential sales of Viracept. A commonly used multiple for these biotechs is 4 times sales, check Amgen for a reference on that figure. Based on this, I feel just $200 million in sales will justify the current price. This is a very makeable figure.
As they say, time will tell, although I'm glad to hear you're not short AGPH, because I personally think that would be a losing proposition and I do have my money where my mouth is. I don't look for $40 again, although I've been wrong before -:) |
