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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: put2rich who wrote (12079)7/28/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Thanh...

Re: AMZN.

I have no position in AMZN but I did find the following as part of a discussion about stocks. thought you might find it interesting. The complete article can be found at the address included below.

Bob T.

>>VThen there is Keith Benjamin, who puts a different methodology to work at the San Francisco brokerage firm BancAmerica Robertson Stephens. He looks principally at how many people are turning to the given business and how that feeds into earnings. With Amazon.com he estimates that more than 8 million people will be using the site by the year 2001, contributing to revenue of $120 per user and net income of over $7 per user. Taking these figures, he then projects an earnings number for the year 2001, discounting expected expenses. Assuming that earnings should trade at a multiple of 50, he then comes up with a current price target based on those numbers. Given all this, he figures, Amazon.com should be trading at 44 -- 52% lower than its current price. And then, of course, there is the very real possibility that this bookselling phenomenon is just a sitting duck, with Barnes & Noble (BKS) -- a company with 1,011 stores, $2.8 billion in revenue and 27 years of success under Chairman Leonard Riggio -- vowing to blow Amazon.com off the Net one day soon.
With risks like these on the Internet, is it any wonder that Warren Buffett just bought an insurance company?

smartmoney.com;
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