It's been a long time since I've said anything on this board, and today
will most likely be the last time I have anything to say. I've sat through
situations similar to what has happened to OAKT in the last few weeks
and based on that let me tell you what I think will happen this evening.
The operational earnings will probably be close to street estimates,
but the company will, I believe, announce a restructuring with probable layoffs and a big charge against earnings that will make
the loss seem even worse. As a result, the level of cash will be significantly lower than last quarter(if I remember correctly, the
acquisition the company announced at the end of last quarter wasn't
actually paid for until this quarter, so this could also impact the cash
reserves) . If this is the case, it explains why the price has been bid
down below what we thought the cash value was. The important
question is how big a shakeup will there be in upper management?
In my opinion, the heads of a few of the big wheels need to roll if
they want to reestablish credibility with investors, otherwise, it's
just cosmetic.
Asia will of course be blamed for much of the company's problems,
and the outlook for the next couple of quarters will be foggy because
of the slow rampup of DVD and continually falling ASPs for CD-ROM
controllers. All in all, not a real positive situation to be sitting in the middle of.
Of course, this is just my opinion, and considering I recently left this stock for good after 2 and a half years of anxiety and frustration, the
company will more likely announce a buyout from a big well-heeled
chip company for $10-12 a share. :)
David |
