Hi Norman,
Guess we are the only 2 on this board :)
Anyway, I talked to Investor Relations today, they (actually she) was very helpful. Here is my takeaway:
1) There is some confusion over the dilution from the new purchase - approx. 500K shares. However, this is leading to some revisions downward for earnings next quarter, since it ends up costing $.01-$0.02 a share from the dilution. It is possible some trading models are queuing off these downward revisions.
2) They are very comfortable with estimates for the next year. Definitely see a lot of growth in Visio Pro, IntelliCAD, etc.
3) They are going to try to augment their strategy for the original Visio product, since growth there has lagged (5% year-over-year, compated to Visio Pro's 100+% (?) growth).
4) Revenues are up 70% year over year.
5) She seemed anxious to get people to realize Visio was more than just IntelliCAD - I guess analysts have been focusing on it more than they'd like compared to the main Visio products, which are most of revenue now are going forward.
6) Their market research paints their target - they maintain that of the 70+ Million Office users out there, about 50% could use Visio. That dwarfs the approx 2 million users they currently estimate. Lots of room for growth.
Personally, I think anything under 40 is a steal, so I wouldn't be picky. But, if the market is weak, and their is some confusion over the dilution, you might place a low buy order in and hope it hits. VSIO is very volatile. It can swing 5 points in a day easy.
I'm personally out of cash for new buys right now, so won't happen for me. (just bought more CGO). |
