Welcome back, Carl,
1. Most important things first, congratulations on getting AMAT post # 22,222.
2. Thanks for the URL to that most interesting chart on Unit IC Y/Y growth. The last point plotted seems to be an all time low. Contrarian that I am, I would take that as a bullish sign.
3. RE SI member dislike of the analyst community. Speaking for this SI member, I dislike analysts with obvious conflicts of interests such as those who work for Investment Bankers and churn client accounts. For some strange reason, I'm reminded of Tom Kurlak flip-flopping on Micron at least 4 times in about 1 year.
To my knowledge, no one has ever criticized you for being part of the analyst community. ... and the only post that criticized you for having your URL in your signature came from a poster who had never contributed anything of any value to SI.
Clearly, in S.I.'s early days, you and Ron were frequent and valued posters.
4. None of us consistently win accolades for market timing. Certainly we shouldn't expect perfection from you especially when you never promised it.
5. Just as '96 downturn came to an end with technology buys rather than capacity, it is quite possible that this downturn may come to an end as the DRAM makers rush to catch up with the leading edge production technology in their sector. Except this time, we know the result - a greater contribution to excess capacity. So, I wouldn't expect stock prices to spike up quite as much this time as they did in 96 -97. But again, what do I know? I don't even profess to be an analyst.
6. Last, I appreciate, even desire, contrary opinions from knowledgeable people. I tend to ignore contrary opinions from those who've shown very little understanding of anything. Clearly, you're part of the former community. [in case there was any doubt of my opinion of you.]
Again, welcome back and best regards,
Ian. |
