Kemble..and anyone wanting to take a shot at this:...The Clinton thing may have negative repercussions to some extent on the Market over the weeks and months to come, based on fears...Fears that may or may not prove out to impact the fundamental conditions required for a bull market to sustain it's upward trajectory..........The other concern of investors is one in which I think hits more realistically at the core of fundamental issues--- diminished earnings as a by-product, if you will, of the Asian recession situation we are becoming more and more aware of.......What's going on at this point as I see it, is a declining corporate growth measured by earnings...Quarter 2 results has shown an average growth of the S&P 500 to be only about 2% (Quarter 1 had an average growth of about 8%)..Asia is named by most of these companies/analysts as the reason for the noticeable slowdown in corporate earnings growth......
AS THIS IMPACTS DELL....With no apparent resolution or solution yet in sight for the Asian economic woes this has resulted in a whole lot of economists suggesting that a bear market, caused by declining earnings/overvaluation, is at out doorstep....My question I would like to throw up for grabs is this:....1)WOULD DELL BE LIKELY TO KEEP UP ITS STELLAR PROFIT MARGINS IN THIS ENVIORNMENT, especially in a bear market of say, a 20-30% market correction, for say 3-8 Quarters?...If the answer is no, what is the likely scenario for an investor at these levels?....Would he have to wait for the Bear Market to be over before he saw his "principal" investment appreciate (if he were investing in DELL for the first time tomorrow).....Or can an investor in a company like DELL, in a prolonged Bear Market, even with a slowdown in DELL's growth perhaps, still see an increase in one's DELL portfolio?......
Any thoughts, in general, how DELL might be affected as a company and also we as shareholders how we could be affected, should we enter a prolonged Bear Market?...You never know, this could be a scenario we may have to look at one of these days, even a little sooner that some would think.
Regards, George |
