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Biotech / Medical : GENZYME - THE KING OF THE BIOTECHS
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To: Vector1 who wrote (317)7/29/1998 9:53:00 AM
From: Lighthouse  Read Replies (1) of 410
 
Vector 1 thanks for the reply! Nice to see some discussion of "The King of the Biotechs" ;-)

Thanks for sharing your numbers with the group. In a like spirit here are mine: (These are just projections used for illustrative purposes only and are not guaranteed to be accuracte, sensible or realistic. Personal due diligence is the only way to invest. Be careful and trust no one but yourself)

1998: $1.45
1999: $1.83
2000: $2.03

A quick note on the EPS augmentation to GENZ via the tax benefits of GENZL. That is one reason the p/e is lower than one would think. The quality of those earnings is suspect/poor. Once this area gets cleaned up (one way or the other) the p/e will move higher.

What is your take on GENZL? Would you continue funding this division? Personally I would drop every indication except an arthrscopic Carticel procedure. Long term I believe you will need a two step arthroscopic procedure to drive widespread adoption. Also the price must come down as well. It may be that it is one of those procedures where at $10,000 and difficult surgery you get 3,000 people. As opposed to a $3,000-$4,000 procedure with minimal recovery problems and you get 50,000 people. The Parkinson's indication and the other Neurocell treatments look like a very expensive lottery tickets. The amount of dilution necessary to bring this to market is quite large. {I have no idea why someone would buy GENZL looking forward with the dilution coming down the pipe).

Do you know anything about the Interferon announcement yesterday? I actually like this division and the steps they are taking.

Regards,

P.S. Do you know how much GENZ has spent on Seprafilm?
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